Stephen Cohen, director of South Asia programs at the Brookings
Institute, believes that both India and Pakistan are engaged in a childish
game of chicken. One of
the problems is that Pakistanis would like to see U.S. intervention, and this
gives them an incentive to create a crisis.
Whatever the reason, it is clear that each country is willing to back up its
position with the loss ofblood. Although the statistics are a bit vague, between
30,000 and 50,000 people have lost their lives in the area in the past 10 years.
Pakistan’s new leader
The tension of the situation in Kashmir is not relieved by the introduction of
new leadership. On Oct. 12, 1999, Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf seized power in a coup
that ousted the country’s democratically elected Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Sharif had been working on the problem of Kashmir with Indian’s Prime Minister
Atal Behari Vajpayee and, according to reports, had made substantial headway
in reaching an accord. Musharraf’s stand on how to handle the Kashmir question
is not clear.
Regardless of what his stand turns out to be on Kashmir, most people I talked
to actually approved of his taking over leadership of the country. Pakistan has
been suffering under corrupt politicians for years, and nepotism is rife.
There was hope expressed that Musharraf might help pull Pakistan out of poverty
and get rid of the most corrupt individuals. The country has defaulted on $3.3
billion in loans from other governments and has the lowest Standard & Poor’s
credit rating. Because of corruption, the money loaned to the country has been
badly handled, and the country is seen as having an unstable economy.
Solutions?
There is hope among Pakistanis that President Clinton will be able to help resolve
the Kashmir issue. Clinton appears to be highly regarded by the leaders in Pakistan,
and they feel he has the power to help correct the situation. He has plans to
visit India, and it is hoped he will also visit Pakistan. Leaders in Pakistan
believe this will ease tensions in the region. Their desire seems to be that
he will call for an election where the people in the Kashmir area can decide
their own fate.
My informants do not believe that any election on the part
of the citizens of the disputed area to become part of Pakistan is going
to be approved by India. One possibility, suggested by U.S. congressman
Major Owens, is that the electorate will be able to choose between becoming
a state within India or becoming an independent
country.
Many nations around the world will breathe a sigh of relief if and when this
situation is settled.
My informants do not believe that any election on the part of the citizens
of the disputed area to become part of Pakistan is going to be approved by
India. One possibility, suggested by U.S. congressman Major Owens, is that
the electorate will be able to choose between becoming a state within India
or becoming an independent
country.
Many nations around the world will breathe a sigh of relief if and when this
situation is settled.